Who killed Jon Arryn (and why)

nobodysuspectsthebutterfly:

I’ve been referring to the murder of Jon Arryn often recently in discussion of the various mysteries of ASOIAF, and I know it’s a topic that can be confusing, so I figured I’d do a timeline to have a post to link to in case anyone wants to see it all laid out neatly. So… here’s everything that led to Jon Arryn’s murder, and everyone who was involved.

• Queen Cersei Lannister and her brother Jaime engage in incestuous adultery, producing children that King Robert Baratheon thinks are his – and because Cersei is queen, this is a capital crime that would result in Cersei’s, Jaime’s, and the children’s execution if it were to be discovered.
• Robert’s brother Stannis becomes suspicious of the parentage of Cersei’s children, partially due to the fact that he is very aware of what Robert’s bastards look like (as one, Edric Storm, was conceived in his wedding bed). Because Stannis thinks that Robert wouldn’t believe him if he told him, he goes to the Hand of the King, Jon Arryn, Robert’s beloved foster-father, with his suspicions.
• Jon and Stannis proceed to investigate and gather evidence. They look up other known bastards of Robert – including Gendry, an apprentice smith, and Barra, a prostitute’s infant daughter. Jon Arryn researches animal breeding, basically figuring out Mendelian genetics, dominant traits, etc, and also researches the genealogy of the great houses of Westeros, specifically earlier Baratheon/Lannister marriages. Jon Arryn goes to Grand Maester Pycelle for books and information on these subjects.
• As Stannis and Jon’s investigation gathers information, Cersei becomes aware of what’s happening, and starts making her own plans. (Note she also has to deal with the fact that Robert’s youngest brother Renly is also plotting against her, planning to bring Margaery Tyrell to court to attract Robert.)
• Jon Arryn realizes the conclusion of the investigation would mean war with the Lannisters once it was presented to the king. He makes arrangements to get his son and heir, Robert, out of King’s Landing (and also away from his mother, Lysa, who he believes has been coddling him and making him weak), and asks Stannis to foster him at Dragonstone.
• Lysa Arryn, in desperation because her beloved only child will be taken from her, begs for help from her dearest friend and would-be lover, Peter Baelish. (Who is aware of Cersei and Jaime’s adultery through his spies, and sees an opportunity to advance himself via the chaos of war.) Littlefinger convinces Lysa that if she were to kill her husband Jon, then Sweetrobin would be safe with her always, and also that they would be able to be together at last. He provides a poison, the Tears of Lys, and Lysa puts it in Jon’s cup of wine.
• The Tears of Lys works via eating away at the stomach and intestines, looking like a disease of the digestive system, and Jon Arryn becomes very ill. His personal maester, Colemon, either suspecting that Jon had been poisoned or because this is a normal treatment for that disease, begins purging him.
• Grand Maester Pycelle, who is aware of the investigation (and may have also known about the incest), believes it was Cersei that had Jon poisoned. Because he thinks Cersei wants Jon Arryn dead, Pycelle sends Maester Colemon away, with the excuse that the purging potions were too harsh on Lord Arryn’s elderly body, and treats him only with large doses of milk of the poppy.
• Jon Arryn dies, raving incoherently about the truth of what he’s discovered, begging Lysa to tell Robert.
• Cersei convinces Robert the best way to honor Jon would be to have his son, Robert’s namesake, fostered with her father Tywin at Casterly Rock, in actuality to hold him as a hostage in case Jon had told Lysa anything. Lysa takes her son and maester and household and flees to the Eyrie, but not before writing a coded letter to her sister Catelyn Stark per Littlefinger’s instructions, blaming the Lannisters for Jon Arryn’s murder. (One member of her household, Jon’s former squire Hugh, stays in King’s Landing – possibly paid by Littlefinger to be a red herring?)
• Robert (and most of the court) leaves for the North to ask Ned Stark to be his new Hand. Stannis, believing the Lannisters had Jon killed, leaves for Dragonstone and starts making his own plans.

Think that’s it. Anyone have anything I missed, let me know and I’ll add it.

Excellent reference guide. 

I would make some additions, some more solid than others:

• I would add that a number of people knew about the affair other than Jon and Stannis: Varys knew, Littlefinger knew, Renly knew, Pycelle knew. Cersei and Jaime were clearly not that good at being discrete.  
• There is a suggestion in Tyrion III that it’s possible Stannis became suspicious of Joffrey et al. because of either Varys or Littlefinger or some other conspirator at court: “Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.”
• I’m of the opinion that Ser Hugh was Littlefinger’s man on the inside of Jon Arryn’s investigation. Hence why he was able to stay in the capitol to be neatly taken out in front of Ned Stark. It would also explain how Littlefinger is able to intervene with such precise timing to prevent word from getting out prematurely.