How much trade does the iron throne do? Like what percentage of gdp would a typical medieval state have as imports and exports? What does this trade consist of? And how effected would westeros be if it were completely cut off from the rest of the world?
Well, if @warsofasoiaf asks…
The Iron Throne doesn’t do much trade itself, since it’s a government that derives most of its revenues from taxes as opposed to trading directly on its own account. Yes, Littlefinger has gotten into the wool trade, for example, but it’s unclear how much if any of that revenue actually goes to the crown instead of to Littlefinger.
If you’re asking how much international trade Westeros does, I think it’s rather low given that A. the overwhelming majority of the population works in subsistence agriculture, B. as Westeros is rather underdeveloped, there are severe limits to the spread of markets due to the inability to get goods to market, and C. Westeros’ exports are almost entirely natural resources (food, wine, wool, timber, etc.) and its imports are higher valued-added manufacturing.
If you’re asking for a percent GDP figure, there are estimates that 16th century England had a foreign trade of less than 8% and that was after a huge surge in the wool trade and we haven’t seen in Westeros anything like the social and economic transformation that the rise of the commercial wool trade had on England from the 14th through 16th centuries. Likewise, I’ve seen estimates that the agrarian economy (i.e, just that part of the economy that came from producing crops) made up 85% or more of English GDP in 1300, which also suggests a low figure for Westeros.
Yes, Littlefinger has gotten into the wool trade, for example, but it’s unclear how much if any of that revenue actually goes to the crown instead of to Littlefinger.
I would submit humbly that crown revenues grew so much under Littlefinger (something like tenfold, I believe?) that either Aerys’ administration was a shockingly corrupt and ineffective thing even by the standards of corrupt bureaucracies (which is, of course, entirely possible) or that Littlefinger has to be funneling at least some of the revenue from his merchant ventures on behalf of the crown back to said crown.
I mean. I think we can all agree that there’s a shit-ton of embezzling going on on Littlefingers part, probably with the tacit approval of both the throne and council. (Perk of the job, as long as we get our cut, etc.) At the very least, I’d be very surprised if he weren’t doing things like underwriting zero-interest loans to himself. But I don’t think the massive income stream he directed towards the crown is entirely due to structural reform; I think Littlefinger is actually generating value-add.
Which is real smart of him. Littlefinger is the smallest of small lords, or, well, he was, and he’s thoroughly unlikable, seems to go out of his way to be unlikable (I’m having trouble thinking of anyone at court who doesn’t think he has a really punchable face) which means his position has heretofore been dependent on being known as a wizard of coin.
(Sidebar: now that I think of it, Littlefinger really dialed his assholery back once he got to the Vale. There’s a lot less quipping, a lot less smarm, a lot less deliberate provocation of people. He acts like a regular person and not a big bag of dicks.)
The essay I link above – “Who Stole Westeros?” – is pretty detailed about what’s going on here, because the big issue isn’t embezzlement, it’s fraud. (Primarily accounting fraud and loan fraud).
See the thing about these numbers is that, as you said, there’s something fishy about giant increases in revenue on that scale. Now you’ve pointed to one option – that Littlefinger must be diverting the money, which he definitely is. But there’s a bigger issue: what if he just made the money up? After all, the only thing saying these tenfold revenue increases, first at Gulltown where it made his reputation, and then at King’s Landing where it made him indepensible, are real is Littlefinger’s books. And he knows that noblemen don’t understand accounting.
He takes advantage of a boost in revenue due to a long summer by proclaiming it to be more than anyone’s seen, the bosses see treasure rooms stuffed with gold so they’re happy (and not working out the mental math as to whether this adds up), he gets a promotion, and equally importantly, he creates the on-paper preconditions for huge loans. The Iron Bank and the Faith aren’t about to loan out huge sums to a king who can’t pay them back, but if revenues are up by 1000%, they’re not going to quibble.
And that’s when he starts in on the loan fraud…
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