I’ve discussed this scenario in exhaustive detail in my ACOK recaps (Catelyn II through IV are a good bet, plus Tyrion VIII on) and in my archives here.
Riffing on your post about the timing of Blackwater, what do you think happens if Tywin and the Tyrells arrive an hour too late, or the following afternoon/night? How quickly can Stannis secure the city? With Joff’s head on a spike, do the Tyrells turn on the Lannisters? Does Tywin attempt a siege? What do the Northerners do?
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