Read my Peake essay
Building off of a discussion that I had with @goodqueenaly, I thought I’d share some thoughts I had about the expulsion of the Manderlys from the Reach. We don’t know much about what precipitated this event other than that Perceon III “feared their swelling power in the Reach.” Now, this could be pure feudal politics, with Perceon III wanting to take down an "over-mighty vassal.”
However, I think it’s notable that when the Manderlys fled, “the wealth that the Manderlys had brought with them from the Reach” was enough to build both the New Keep and the city of White Harbor. It takes an enormous amount of money to do that. This makes me think that the conflict was over money.
Now there are a couple ways this could happen. One possibility is that, as the Mander is named after the Manderlys, they probably had a dominant position on the river (probably somewhere near the mouth, given their conflict with the marcher lord Peakes) which allowed them to put a toll on river traffic – not only would this make the Manderlys reach indeed, but it would create a natural point of conflict with the Gardeners upstream at Highgarden.
Another possibility is that it was a John of Gaunt situation. The Manderlys were a very wealthy and thus envied house, Perceon III needed money for a war or something, and decided to confiscate the estate of the richest house in the kingdom, similar to how Richard II confiscated the estates of his uncle John of Gaunt to help pay for his failed war in Ireland.
A third possibility is that, similar to how Wyman Manderly wanted to become Robb Stark’s master of coin, the Manderlys were the masters of coin in the Reach. From that position, the same techniques that made Thomas Cromwell one of the richest men in England might explain how they had so much moveable wealth during their exile, in a society where most wealth is tied up in the land. And it might also explain how they were brought down, through allegations of corruption or embezzlement, true or false.
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