I think she opened negotiations the same day Robb was wounded taking the Crag, if not the same hour, and I’m pretty sure it was only the fear of reprisals that kept her from offering to assassinate Robb in his bed.
In other words, definitely before.
I love this post where @racefortheironthrone explains in detail what Sybell did (and also this post discussing how the maester played a part), and I’m trying to understand the timeline of this post more precisely.
Using the fanmade asoiaf timeline for some rough dates:
- 8th month, 9th day, 299AC – Roose weds Walda (Cat 5, ACOK)
- 8/20 – Battle of the Fords. Tywin is forced to retreat. He marches southeast.
- 8/26 – Robb takes the Craig and is injured. (“No ravens came to men on the road” How does Sybell open negotiations with Tywin at this time? It doesn’t seem like she can.). Jeyne nurses Robb.
- “The Crag was weakly garrisoned, so we took it by storm one night. Black Walder and the Smalljon led scaling parties over the walls, while I broke the main gate with a ram. I took an arrow in the arm just before Ser Rolph yielded us the castle. It seemed nothing at first, but it festered. Jeyne had me taken to her own bed, and she nursed me until the fever passed. And she was with me when the Greatjon brought me the news of … of Winterfell. Bran and Rickon.”
- 8/29 – news of Bran & Rickon’s “deaths” reaches the Craig. (Theon killed the miller’s boys approx. two weeks prior.) Jeyne “comforts” Robb.
- 8/30 – Robb weds Jeyne
- 9/3 – Tywin at Tumbler’s Falls. Floats down the river.
- 9/7 – the Battle of the Blackwater
- 9/8 – Tywin in control of King’s Landing.
- 9/16 – news of Robb’s marriage arrives at Riverrun. (Cat doesn’t know.)
- 9/18 – Tywin made Hand (ACOK, Sansa 8)
- 9/26 – News of Robb’s marriage arrives at Harrenhal. Roose sends orders for the attack on Duskendale.
- 10/5 – Tyrion wakes from his fever. Tywin is writing letters.
According to the timeline, it might take a raven about 4 to 7 days maximum to go from the Crag to KL, so how could Sybell begin negotiations as soon as Robb took the Crag? Tyrion never got any letters from her. The timeline seems to suggest that Sybell started negotiating after the wedding? Is this timeline as I’ve put it down here right?
How can the conspiracy start when Roose weds Walda, when Robb hadn’t taken the Crag at that time? It doesn’t seem like Roose/Walda can be a part of the conspiracy?
It seems like the conspiracy had to start shortly after Tywin took control of KL, so Sybell could only have begun negotiating during the first week of the ninth month? If Tywin gets Sybell’s raven on ~9/9, then he writes Walder, and then everything is set in motion?
@racefortheironthrone, please, could you explain what I’m getting wrong here, because I don’t understand how Sybell could have begun negotiating as soon as Robb was wounded?
Ah, I see what’s going on. We’re using different timelines. I was using the one that Errant_Bard put together and you’re using the one that PrivateMajor put together, and the two have different assumptions about when some things happened.
For example, Errant_Bard has it:
- 299 9/16 Robb takes Crag. Hears of Bran and Rickon’s deaths. Sleeps with Jeyne.
- 299 9/18 Battle of the Blackwater.
- 299 9/22 Catelyn learns that Robb has taken the Crag, finds out about Bran and Rickon’s deaths, frees Jaime.
- 299 11/1 Tyrion wakes up, talks with Tywin, “some wars won with ravens.”
That version of events means that Tywin would have gotten the letter from Sybelle immediately after the Blackwater, and his letter to Tyrion is putting the finishing touches on the agreement now that everyone’s on board.
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