How much of the leeches was fake? Did Mel merely foresee the deaths of Balon, Robb, & Joffrey and use the leeches as a clever way to manipulate Stannis into believing that it was R’hollor’s power and her magic that smites Stannis’ “rival contenders” for the throne?

Entirely fake. Mel looked into the future and retrofitted a ritual to try to get Stannis to agree to sacrifice Edric Storm. 

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