The answer is, it kind of depends on what kind of damage the War for the Dawn does. If there’s a massive loss of life, you potentially can have a negative population spiral, because 90%+ of the population are also your primary food producers – lower population means lower production, which means less food available so birth-rates decline, and the spiral continues.
On the other hand, when you have a massive loss of life, you do get a huge increase in per-capita material living standards. As we saw with the Black Death, epidemic diseases kill lots of people, but they leave the land, the houses, improvements, and other non-perishable property intact, and now it’s spread over a smaller population. There’s some scholars who argue that one of the catalysts for the Industrial Revolution was the increase in surplus capital from the Black Death.
In terms of how the political changes might change things…
On the one hand, you now have much more flexibility within your own polity: you have your own coinage so you can set monetary policy, you have your own taxation system so you can set fiscal policy. So if there are institutional barrier at the kingdom-wide level to certain economic development, than potentially moving back to the Seven Kingdoms could ease the way for that.
On the other hand, you now have the added difficulty of international commerce within what was once a single polity: seven kingdoms means seven currencies, which means you have foreign exchange issues; it also means that you need to work out trade deals with the other kingdoms in order to be able to sell your goods outside of your own patch. And of course, any kind of economic development that crosses borders is now made a lot more complicated.
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