That’s a bit odd.
I don’t really see a mechanism by which a larger cattle-raising industry lead to Tsarism.
And a Moat Cailin canal wouldn’t really piss off Dorne, because it’s more redistributing trade in the more northerly areas. So I would expect Gulltown to take a hit, King’s Landing to an extent, and maybe maybe Oldtown if more Lannisport trade goes north through the canal rather than south.