My guess would be that he started when he heard that Robb had marched his armies south from Moat Cailin, or maybe when he heard that Renly has claimed the crown.
The evidence seems conclusive that Balon was planning to attack the North long before Robb ever sent Theon to him to negotiate. The question becomes: how early? Does he start actively planning (i.e. massing ships, calling the banners, making secret plans with Aeron and Victarion, etc.) the moment he hears that Ned Stark is leaving the North in early-to-mid 298? Do you think he was closely following developments in the ‘green lands’ throughout 298 and early 299 to optimally time his invasion?
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