If Viserys had been kept in the loop about the marriage pact with Arianne, if he lands in Dorne after Robert’s death will he receive significant support outside of Dorne? The Tyrells and some stormlords have Renly, Stannis is stuck with the lords of the Narrow Sea and perhaps some stormlords, the North, Iron Islands, and the riverlands are secessionist, the Vale is isolationist, and the westerlands are for Joffrey. Is there any scenario where the secret master Doran plan amounts to something?

serfriendzonetoth:

racefortheironthrone:

serfriendzonetoth:

racefortheironthrone:

Depends when he lands. If Renly is dead, Stannis is believed defeated and confined to the North, then yes there could well be a Targaryen restoration movement boiling out of the south that rolls up a disunited opposition 

That seems like the current plan with Aegon and the Golden Company.

It’s also why I’ve never thought Tyrion’s plan, which Aegon seems to be following, was all that bad.

Well, Tyrion’s plan means Aegon doesn’t marry Dany and get a dragon…

Does it, though? “Let her come to me, in Westeros.” Aegon is establishing House Targaryen’s first foothold in Westeros in almost two decades, which she can then secure with her Unsullied and the dragons. That was the way Tyrion presented it.

Granted, that’s all out the window if he marries Arianne, but I think his braintrust (Varys, Connington) is smart enough to realize that, as fearsome as they are, the Golden Company, even with their “friends in the Reach,” can’t secure the whole continent.

I think it does, for several reasons:

1. It means that someone else is claiming the Iron Throne. A dragonriding conqueror is unlikely to treat that kindly.
2. It means that Aegon doesn’t establish any relationship with Dany. Which means he’s got no way of influencing her reaction to his actions and she has no context for interpreting them.
3. Tyrion’s intent, as it appears to me, is that he wants to get to Dany ahead of Aegon or anyone from Varys/Illyrio’s camp. That means that he’d have the opportunity to intrepret his actions unfavorably to her. 

But I do think Aegon will marry Arrianne, because he’s an impetuous, risk-taking young man who’s going to go for the army that’s at hand rather than the one that’s trapped in Meereen. (Also, it doesn’t hurt to have his mother’s family recognizing his identity) 

And his brainstrust also realize that they don’t need to secure the whole continent, all they need to do is take King’s Landing. The Riverlands and Westerlands and North aren’t in a position to fight them, the Reach and the Ironborn are busy fighting, and if they can take out Tommen, Aegon’s legitimacy is doubly secured by the extinction of the Lannister-Baratheon line and right of conquest. And down the line, Aegon can probably bring the Reach into his camp with the friends in the Reach and offering support vs. the Ironborn.