If Renly had been willing to play a longer game, wouldn’t he have most likely become king eventually anyways? If Stannis takes the throne Renly is the second-most important man in the kingdom as the king’s closest-living male relative. If Renly claims the crown after Stannis dies it’s hard to imagine a significant faction defending Shireen’s female claim (especially post-DOFTD), and I find it hard to believe Stannis would have ever had another child due to his infrequent relations with Selyse.

Yes, which makes his rebellion even less sensible. Had Renly not been so impatient and over-optimistic, to say nothing of arrogant, he could have been the power behind the throne and the heir apparent. Instead, he’s a corpse. 

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