There would still have been a war – look at the Dance of the Dragons, after all. Any time that you have two great houses with succession claims on the Iron Throne, you’re highly likely to get a civil war unless assassination clears the decks.
I think the main difference is that Daemon’s position would have been a lot, lot stronger. Rather than being a legitimized bastard who was only a landed knight, Daemon Targaryen would have been known by the various lords as a Prince with his own domains. Especially if Aegon IV had pulled a Viserys I and gotten the lords of the realm to swear allegiance to him, Daemon might well have gotten the support from more than a few Lords Paramount.
But as the older son, Daeron would still likely have had the support of traditionalists like the Arryns as well as his in-laws the Martells, and probably the Lannisters and Tullys as in OTL.