I think he would have indeed been more cautious…although, given the way the timeline works, he must have been sending out the letters to set this all up before Jaime was released.
How differently do you imagine Tywin fights the post-Blackwater Wot5K if Jaime is still a captive? Roose and Walder presumably itch to turn cloak as in OTL, but is Twyin more cautious about planning the Red Wedding knowing what a wrong move could entail for his son?
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