What would have happened if somehow the Boltons had managed to capture Arya (ex: if she had told Roose who she really was at Harrenhal). Would everything have gone down in pretty much the same way it did in ADWD or would there have likely been any significant differences? And if so, what would those be?

I think Roose would have been a lot, lot more careful with real Arya than with fake Arya, because I think part of the reason he’s been so laissez-faire about “Arya” is that he knows she’s a fake. 

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