Some excellent points in here, Steven. Just a couple of things I’d like to add. You mention ‘trade’ in passing, but I think – with some slight tweaks surrounding more trade – the North could be even more successful while further minimising the ‘Winter Risk’.
Firstly, horses. You mention briefly a horse trading centre based around a new ‘Rillstown’ in the South West of the region. But there is no real reason horse breeding could not become an economic staple through out The North. The populations of Central Asia have for thousands of years bred horses combined with sheep and goats because the horses are able to use their hard hooves to break through tundra and permafrost to reach forage underneath. Sheep and goats also do well following up this grazing method (they eat the portions of the forage left behind by the horses, so there is good symbiosis).
Although the Dothraki are renowned as being the peak of the horse flesh business, establishing new bloodlines for horses and different breed specialties would be a good long term prospect for The North. More than simply providing for the population of the region, they provide a competitive trading opportunity and the building of a differentiated, specialist skill set.
You rightly point out that The North should move into industries that offer more of a return per capita than subsistence farming. I’d take that one step further and assert the real thing the North needs to foster is artisanal skill sets that are less ‘climate dependent’. Fostering the growth of knowledge is the first step to technological advancement and a more stable, less seasonal economy.
To this end, the growth of the British canal system was a boon to the pottery makers of the English midlands. Something similar would also be a viable option for the North. The raw materials for pottery (clay, wood, charcoal) are always available and everyone likes the idea of having a kiln in their village / house when the temperature plummets. Moreover, pottery also offers a portable, non-perishable store of value that can easily be traded away to other locations, even when the weather is bad.
This focus on trade is important. Surplus food in storehouses and in more applicable livestock is crucial and must not be overlooked. But an additional way to safeguard food supplies to the North is with key trade relationships in the south and in Essos that can ensure a steady supply of food from outside the region. Multiple sources of a resource are always better than a single source.
Of course, with key trade routes comes a merchant class and with that merchant class come wealth, power and a potential shift in he politics of the North. At a level barely above subsistence, where the population is sparse and diffused, the Starks are able to maintain a hold over the North with a combination of loyalty, family alliances and projection of force. If the population in the north was to increase and more money to flow into the region (which would happen under your original plan or with the amendments I’m suggesting), the old ways of governing would also have to change.
In a more wealthy and economically diverse version of the North, we may see a house like the Karstarks or the Boltons gain more money and power and use these to usurp the power of the Starks. While Ned Stark seems to enjoy the loyalty of the majority of the Northern Lords, you get the very real impression that this Northern détente is a fairly recent thing (and of course – as we have seen – the Boltons have always chaffed at the Stark yolk).
Chartering more towns and increasing the status of more nobles will keep people quiet in the short term, but in the long term it creates the potential for a ‘War of the Roses’ kind of power struggle. That kind of potential power imbalance can stymie economic growth and improvement faster than a dragonglass dagger in the back of a white walker! During the 1500 and 1600s, the English economy was stagnant and lacklustre (and very Westerosi). It took the whip hand of William III, an intellectual awakening, Newton’s stabilisation of the currency, settling the succession via the Act of Succession, the passing of the Act of Union and – finally – the transition to the Hanoverian line, to truly turn Britain from a back water to an industrial and political powerhouse.
My point is merely that economic change will destabilise the power structure of the North and simultaneously rely upon that power structure to succeed. The excellent changes and improvements you have suggested will wither on the vine if the Starks and the ret of the noble houses of the North can’t navigate the choppy political waters brought about by increased standards of living.
Anyway, sorry for banging on for so long. I really like your economic pieces and the way you think about these things. I don’t think even GRRM has thought as deeply about this aspect of the story (by and large, his understanding of economics is rudimentary at best … unless he means to attack the notion of overly powerful merchant classes via a Littlefinger / Iron Bank arc that has yet to be exposed), so I applaud your efforts.
An excellent response!
Yeah, you’re right, I kind of breezed past trade. In my defense, I was writing late at night and trying to get the post out the door in time for tomorrow am.
While I certainly agree that your scenario is quite possible, it’s not necessarily inevitable. There are cases where industrialization didn’t destabilize traditional power structures as much as you might expect from the British or French cases – the German industrialization system, for example, was quite compatible with the continuation of Junker dominance.
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