Well, Theon might not take the castle in that scenario. With Arya and Sansa in Winterfell, it’s more likely that Catelyn would have returned to the North, and she’d never send all of the troops away from Winterfell with four of her children inside.
You’re good at counter-factuals, help me out: what happens if Ned successfully sent Arya and Sansa back to Winterfell before his downfall? They’re there when Theon takes the castle. Does Theon forcibly marry Sansa? Does Arya escape with Bran and Rickon? What does Robb do with Jamie? Is the Red Wedding averted if Sansa and Arya somehow foil Theon’s “Bran and Rickon are dead” plot?
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