I was going to argue that Tywin wouldn’t have conducted the war the same way if the Arryns had joined it, but then I remembered he started it in the first place and I don’t see how he’d have known Lysa would keep them out. He also attacked men under Robert’s banner. How was he expecting to live though the war, let alone win?

I think he was hoping to use speed to force a fait accompli – capture Eddard, force a swap, call it even and count on Robert not to want the bother. 

After the war started in earnest, he was hoping to knock out the Starks and Tullys fast enough to give him time to deal with Stannis and Renly.

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