Isn’t the real issue for Tywin at Harrenhal not whether an assault would work, but whether Robb can starve Tywin out, and whether Stafford could successfully relieve Tywin? The size of Tywin’s force actually makes it easier to starve him out, because he clearly won’t be able to feed it if he’s trapped within the castle. And even if Robb can’t starve him out, just keeping Tywin in Harrenhal prevents him from relieving King’s Landing.

1. If Robb’s starving Tywin out, how exactly is he stopping himself from being starved? And Tywin’s had time to prepare stores, where Robb wouldn’t.

2. Stafford attacking Riverrun would badly divide Robb’s forces. 

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