ikoke submitted:

Continuing with the numbers issue in the South, Tarly,Rowan & Loras salvaged 5000 from Renly’s 20000 horse at Storm’s End. So that likely represents the mounted strength of Horn Hill, Goldengrove & a few other Reacher houses. The Florents,Cranes,Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums & Meadowes switched to Stannis. Combined their mounted strength should amount to at least 5-6000. Of Mace’s 10000 reserve, around 3-4000 should be knights/squires. We know that 2 of the richest & most powerful houses-the Hightowers & their vassals(Beesburys, Costaynes) & the Redwynes had stayed away from Renly’s host.These houses should be able to field around 3-5000 cavalry at least. Add to it the houses Renly names as his supporters but never show up(Shermer, Dunn,Footley, Blackbar, etc.) and the ones he never named (Peakes, Vyrwells, Ball, Roxton, Leygood, Ambrose, Ashford etc.) , and we can account for another 5-7000 cavalry at least. So all in around 25-27000 Reacher horsemen accounted for.at least . Some other forces would have been left to guard the castles.
So if we assume that at least 5-6000 Reachers switched over to Stannis, that would mean that at most 9-10000 Stormlanders joined his cause at Storm’s End. Whatever infantry Caron, Errol, Morrigen, Penrose and others mobilised would have been left behind at Bitterbridge when Renly sped off to Storm’s End, meaning the Stormlander foot had no choice but to serve under Randyll Tarly when he returned and seized control at Bitterbridge. A good % of these men are probably in the Riverlands & KL even now. So that leaves around 10000 of Stormlander military strength unmobilized (assuming that 9-10000 SL horse was matched by at least 10-15000 SL foot in Renly’s force, and that the SLs can field 30-35000 men all in all).

Let’s work through this, with Anonymous’ correction re: the Stormlands taken into account.

If Renly had the full support of both the Reach and Stormlands, his army should have been 140,000 strong, with 38,000 cavalry. As it stands, Renly seems to have around 80,000 (with 10k at Highgarden, so 90,000 or 65% support) with 20,000 cavalry (which roughly fits the ratio) – although he’ll claim to have 120,000 with 20,000 cavalry (which is way below the ratio). 

Now, we know that Loras and Tarly grabbed 4,000 cavalry from Storm’s End, which includes House Tarly, House Rowan, and House Tyrell. Can’t forget this last part – the Tyrells brought a lot of manpower to Bitterbridge and Storm’s End, which is reflected by the ubiquity of their banners. 

I’m going to use a rough estimate that the Houses have an average of 2,000 soldiers each, with ~540 being cavalry. So the seven Reach Houses (Florents, Cranes, Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums, Meadows) who see service with Stannis should equal roughly 3,780 cavalry. We know that 13 Stormlander Houses (Morringens, Estermonts, Carons, Conningtons, Errols, Hastys, Bollings, Horpes, Peaseburys, Fells, Wyldes, Grandisons, and Wensingtons) see action with Stannis. That’s roughly 7,020 men. 

Together, that accounts for 10,800 of the 16,000 who join Stannis at Storm’s End. Now, there are a couple of possible explanations here: 

1. Some of the Reacher Houses mentioned by Renly but who we never got verification of being present or having switched sides (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Cuy, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly) were actually present and switched sides. Most of these I’m pretty skeptical of, but I’ve actually changed my mind on the Cuys, especially after Loras killed Ser Emmon the Yellow, it might make sense that they flipped to Stannis. That would add another 4,320, although I’m thinking more like 540. 
2. Some of the Stormlander Houses mentioned here but who don’t show up later with Stannis (Tarth, Penrose, Morrigen, Selmy) did fight with Stannis but just didn’t get mentioned. That would add another 2160 men.
3. My estimates for House size might be off. Some of these houses are clearly bigger than 2,000: the Fossoways are actually two separate Houses and are clearly pretty numerous given Lothor Brune’s accomplishments at Blackwater Bay, the Carons as the leading Marcher House are probably pretty big (especially if Renly gave them a seat on the Rainbow Guard), ditto House Crane. So if they’re more like the Freys than the Florents, that might add another 1,620 men. 

That gets us pretty close, up to 15,000 men. 

So….if around 4,000 Reachermen joined Stannis, that suggests that there’s another 23,000 Reach cavalry around. 4,000 of them went with Loras and Randall, so that leaves us with 19,000 to account for. Using the same 27% rule, around 2,700 of them were with Mace, leaving 16,300 unaccounted for.

If we look at the Reach houses that are either mentioned by Renly and don’t seem to have been there (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly, Caswell), or the significant houses that seem to have been left out (Vrywel, Redwyne, Appleton, Ashford, Chester, Serry, Grimm, and Hewett of the Shield Islands, Cordwayner, Graceford, Merryweather, Peake, Roxton), that gives us 11,340. 

So really there’s only around 5,000 unaccounted for, and House size could easily explain that.