More the second. I think Daemon was far more capable than many in the fandom think. I don’t know if he’d be better than Daeron, but he would be different, not merely warlike.
And let’s be clear: Daemon would have to go through some crazy shit too. Twelve good years, then the Great Spring Sickness – and if he and/or his family live through that, they’re going to have to deal with the drought and Dagon’s reaving and people connecting that to the gods punishing the bastard usurper. Now, granted, I think almost anyone could have dealt better with that than Aerys I did, but it’s not going to be easy.